For updated weather information, please go to KHON2 Weather Forecast or listen to Kauai KONG Radio FM 93.5.
Tropical Storm Kilo was downgraded to a tropical depression late Friday night, and continues to struggle with wind shear.
This system was located about 500 miles south of Honolulu.
While the intensity forecast is a bit uncertain, there is still a possibility that Kilo could eventually become a hurricane several days from now.
Kilo is likely to be pulled northward several days from now. The timing of that northward turn is somewhat uncertain and will ultimately determine how much of a threat it is for the western Hawaiian Islands.
Interests in Hawaii should monitor the progress of this system very closely.
(MORE: Expert Analysis | Hurricane Central)
Storm Information and Satellite
Storm Information and Satellite
Tropical Storm Kilo formed early Friday morning in the central Pacific and remained a minimal tropical storm through most of the day. However, thunderstorms have blown off to the west of a now exposed low-level circulation. Intensification cannot occur until the thunderstorms low-level circulation join together again.
One of two scenarios is possible with Kilo. If Kilo continues to degenerate, it could become a remnant low this weekend. It is not uncommon for central Pacific tropical systems to suddenly weaken and dissipate. On the other hand, Kilo may still be able to better organize. The latest National Hurricane Center forecast continues to strengthen Kilo to a hurricane in the coming days.
Since the sea-surface temperatures are favorable for intensification and most of the computer guidance shows a strengthening trend, it seems plausible that Kilo could still eventually become a hurricane.
(MORE: Twin Typhoons in the Pacific)
Even with the unclear intensity forecast and a currently discombobulated Kilo, Hawaii still needs to watch this one. Kilo may get pulled northward into the new week ahead and still may strengthen into a stronger tropical cyclone.
However, uncertainty remains with exactly where this northward turn may occur and how organized the system may be at that time. These factors will dictate what impacts the populated parts of western Hawaii may see, if any at all.
The forecast trend has shifted farther west, as have many of the track models used to guide forecasters. The center of Kilo may pass far enough west that among the inhabited Hawaiian islands, only Kauai and Niihau might be affected.
However, it’s too early to take impacts off the table for Oahu, Hawaii’s most populated island with nearly one million inhabitants.
The geography of Kilo’s future path is not the only question. The timing and strength are also subject to some uncertainty.
A vigorous southern branch jet stream remains parked over the Hawaiian Islands. That subtropical jet will have to at least weaken or pull north to avoid ripping this system apart.
However, virtually all hurricanes near the Hawaiian Islands since 1950 have approached from the southeast, south, or southwest. Based on the CPHC forecast and much of the computer model guidance, Kilo could be a hurricane upon its closest approach to the Hawaiian Islands in the week ahead.
In El Nino years, the trade winds that sometimes trap tropical cyclones well south of the islands relax, making these lingering storms south of the islands more susceptible to be drawn northward. Of course, an El Nino does not guarantee a hurricane will impact Hawaii.
(MORE: Hawaii’s Hurricane History)
There is, of course, the question of when Kilo might impact Hawaii. The forecast has slowed considerably in that regard, bringing Kilo’s center well southwest of Kauai early Thursday. That’s assuming Kilo doesn’t get ripped apart by the aforementioned jet stream.
Kilo is the fourth named storm to have formed in the central Pacific basin this season and the sixth to track through the basin this year, including eastern Pacific storms Guillermo and Hilda. Loke became the record-breaking fifth storm to form this season in the central Pacific Friday, according to Eric Blake, hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center.
Four to five tropical cyclones are observed in the central Pacific each year, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. CPHC says a record 11 named storms were observed in the central Pacific in 1992 and 1994.
(FORECASTS: Honolulu | Hilo | Kona Coast | Maui)
NOAA’s 2015 Central Pacific hurricane season outlook cited El Nino’s tendency for reduced wind shear and more storm tracks coming from the eastern Pacific as reasons to expect an active season in the central Pacific Basin.
Lowry says dating to 1950, there is a 13 percent increase in the chance of a named storm to track within 100 miles of the Hawaiian Islands during an El Nino year compared to a neutral year.
Stay tuned to The Weather Channel and check back with weather.com for updates on this system.
Seawall in for a overhaul
Pono Kai barrier set for nearly $1M in repairs amid erosion concerns
Darin Moriki – The Garden Island
KAPAA — Pono Kai Resort general manager Peter Sit says he has watched the sea behind his Kapaa resort gradually erode a stone wall protecting the shoreline from erosion while county officials worked out plans to have it repaired.
Nearly eight years later, he is still waiting.
“It’s a dangerous situation when you have a seawall that has deteriorated,” Sit said. “Our concern, as well as the county’s one, is the erosion that is occurring, and it has become worse over the last two years, so that’s why we’ve worked together with the county to have it scheduled for repairs.”
That wait may end soon as county officials move forward with a nearly million-dollar plan to repair the disjointed seawall, which is now cordoned off with yellow tape at one section where the sea breached the wall and eroded a wide section of the shoreline near the county’s paved Ke Ala Hele Makalae multi-use path.
“We certainly appreciate all of the efforts,” Sit said. “Timing wise, it’s great that we finally got this commitment from the county to fund the project repairs. We look forward to its completion because the safety of the people of Kauai, as well as the guests of the Pono Kai, is high on our list.”
Though there are no firm estimates on when the seawall was constructed, efforts to repair it date back to at least 2007 when Oceanit, a Honolulu-based engineering consultant firm, advised the Kauai County Council to authorize repair work that would prevent the entire 600-foot wall from collapsing.
Getting the project off the ground was no easy task.
“A project of this nature requires approvals from a number of government agencies,” County Engineer Larry Dill wrote in an email. “Environmental clearances alone took over four years.”
A taped-off sinkhole area behind the Pono Kai Resort, where a portion of the seawall once stood, is no longer restricted but is being monitored for hazardous conditions, Dill said.
Goodfellow Bros., Inc., a Kihei, Maui-based general contracting company with an office in Lihue, was awarded a $948,400 contract for all materials, labor, transportation, tools, equipment, machinery and services to install and complete the repairs on the Pono Kai seawall.
Construction on the project is slated to begin in early September and finish by the end of this year. Public lateral access to the beach areas will be maintained while repair work is done, including access to Ke Ala Hele Makalae. Beach access points from the Pono Kai Resort, Sit said, will also be retained during the nearly two-month construction period.
“People make the interpretation, especially our visitors, that it’s Pono Kai’s beach, but we want to make sure they understand this is a county beach and a public beach — nobody owns the beaches on the island,” Sit said.
County officials are also working on obtaining a permit from the state Department of Land and Natural Resources for a beach maintenance program to address erosion at the ends of the Pono Kai seawall. Future plans are also in place to repair the nearby Moana Kai seawall.
County officials are finalizing the bid documents to procure services for the project. The Kauai County Council in January approved a $1.6 million appropriation to repair the Pono Kai and Moana Kai seawalls.
Hawaii’s waterways are ripe for exploring by kayak—whether you prefer to meander down sleepy waterways through dense green jungle, visit waterfalls, take a leisurely morning paddle through the calm clear waters of a bay, or experience an adventurous jaunt alongside rugged sea cliffs.
We asked our trusty HAWAII Magazine Facebook ohana to share their favorite paddling spots on our Facebook page. Hundreds of you responded to our question: “What’s your favorite Hawaii place for kayaking?” Popular places to dip paddles—like Hawaii Island’s reef-filled Kealakekua Bay, Oahu’s legendary North Shore and the waters beyond the golden sands of Maui’s Makena Beach—didn’t quite make the cut. You’ll have to read on to learn what did! Read More…